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Obama Coasts to Victory in Miss. Primary

Obama Beats Clinton in Racially Polarized Mississippi Democratic Primary; Pennsylvania Is Next

By DAVID ESPO

The Associated Press

JACKSON, Miss.

Barack Obama coasted to victory in Mississippi's Democratic primary Tuesday, latest in a string of racially polarized presidential contests across the Deep South and a final tune-up before next month's high-stakes race with Hillary Rodham Clinton in Pennsylvania.

Obama was winning roughly 90 percent of the black vote but only about one-quarter of the white vote, extending a pattern that carried him to victory in earlier primaries in South Carolina, Alabama, Georgia and Louisiana.

His triumph seemed unlikely to shorten a Democratic marathon expected to last at least six more weeks — and possibly far longer — while Republicans and their nominee-in-waiting, Sen. John McCain, turn their attention to the fall campaign.

"Now we look forward to campaigning in Pennsylvania and around the country," Maggie Williams, Clinton's campaign manager, said in a written statement that congratulated Obama on his victory.

"I'm confident that once we get a nominee, the party is going to be unified," Obama said as he collected his victory.

But in a race growing more contentious, he took a swipe at the way his rival's campaign has conducted itself.

"We've been very measured in terms of how we talk about Senator Clinton," he said. "I've been careful to say that I think Senator Clinton is a capable person and that should she win the nomination, obviously, I would support her. I'm not sure we've been getting that same approach from the Clinton campaign," he said in on CNN.

Returns from 80 percent of Mississippi's precincts showed Obama gaining 59 percent, to 39 percent for Clinton.

Obama picked up at least 17 of Mississippi's 33 delegates to the Democratic National Convention, with five more to be awarded. He hoped for a win sizable enough to erase most if not all of Clinton's 11-delegate gain from last week, when she won three primaries.

The Illinois senator had 1,596 delegates to 1,484 for Clinton. It takes 2,025 to win the nomination.

Neither of the two rivals appears able to win enough delegates through primaries and caucuses to prevail in their historic race for the nomination, a development that has elevated the importance of nearly 800 elected officials and party leaders who will attend next summer's national convention as unelected superdelegates.

Obama leads Clinton among pledged delegates, 1,385-1,237 in The Associated Press count, while the former first lady has an advantage among superdelegates, 247-211.

There was little suspense about the Mississippi outcome, and both Clinton and Obama spent part of their day campaigning in Pennsylvania, which has 158 delegates at stake in a primary on April 22.

The volatile issue of race has been a constant presence in the historic Democratic campaign, and it resurfaced during the day in the form of comments by Geraldine Ferraro, the 1984 Democratic vice presidential candidate and a Clinton supporter.

"If Obama was a white man, he would not be in this position. And if he was a woman (of any color) he would not be in this position. He happens to be very lucky to be who he is. And the country is caught up in the concept," she said in an interview with the Daily Breeze of Torrance, Calif., that was published last Friday.

Clinton expressed disagreement with Ferraro's comments, and said, "It's regrettable that any of our supporters — on both sides, because we both have this experience — say things that kind of veer off into the personal."

Obama called Ferraro's remarks "patently absurd."

Blacks, who have supported Obama in overwhelming numbers in earlier primaries, accounted for roughly half the ballots cast in Mississippi, according to interviews with voters leaving polling places.

About one in six Democratic primary voters were independents, and Clinton and Obama split their support. Another 10 percent of voters were Republican, and they preferred Clinton by a margin of 3-1.

Six in 10 Obama supporters said he should pick the former first lady as his vice presidential running mate if he wins the presidential nomination. A smaller share of Clinton's voters, four in 10, said she should place him on the ticket.

The Republican primary provided even less suspense than the Democratic contest. McCain had already amassed enough delegates to win his party's nomination and was in New York, attending an evening fundraiser that was expected to raise $1 million.

Adding to the uncertainty in the lengthening race between Obama and Clinton, Democrats from Florida and Michigan are pressing for their delegations to be seated at the summer convention.

Both states were stripped of their delegates by the Democratic National Committee after they held early primaries in defiance of party rules. Efforts are under way to find a compromise that would satisfy party leaders in both states as well as the candidates, although Obama and his top strategist were cool during the day to proposals for primaries-by-mail. "I think there are some concerns in terms of making sure that whatever we do is fair and votes are properly counted and the logistics make sense," Obama told CNN.

Obama has defeated Clinton in primaries in South Carolina, Alabama, Georgia and Louisiana, other states where blacks cast a large share of the ballots.

Exit polls showed blacks accounted for a majority of the ballots in all but Louisiana, where they represented a plurality. Obama's share of the black vote in those states ranged from 78 percent in South Carolina to 88 percent in Georgia, while Clinton won the white vote with ease.

After losing 12 straight primaries and caucuses, Clinton rebounded smartly last week with primary victories in Ohio, Texas and Rhode Island. Obama won the Vermont primary, led in the Texas caucuses, and suffered a loss of only 11 delegates.

But the damage was deeper than mere numbers — costing him a chance to rally uncommitted party leaders to his side, and depriving him of an opportunity to drive the former first lady from the race.

Reinvigorated, Clinton immediately began talking about the possibility of having Obama as her running mate.

Obama ridiculed the idea, saying, "I don't know how somebody who is in second place is offering the vice presidency to the person who is first place."

Other than Pennsylvania, Indiana, North Carolina, West Virginia, Kentucky, Oregon, Puerto Rico, Montana and South Dakota have primaries remaining.

 

Copyright 2008 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.

Copyright © 2008 ABC News Internet Ventures

 

 

Cook: Another hit on the GOP

Illinois special election reminds just how ugly environment is for the GOP

 
By Charlie Cook
National Journal
updated 1:12 p.m. CT, Tues., March. 11, 2008

WASHINGTON - Anyone who has watched American politics lately didn't particularly need to see another piece of evidence proving just how challenging the political environment is for Republicans.

But Republican Jim Oberweis' loss to Democrat Bill Foster in Saturday's special election in Illinois' 14th District -- a seat held for over two decades by former House Speaker Dennis Hastert (R) -- is just one more example.

The heavily Republican district that President Bush carried with 55 percent in 2004 gave Oberweis 47 percent, a big swing but not a surprising one given Bush's high disapproval ratings.

It would be unfair to lay the blame for this loss solely on Bush and his unpopularity, though.

A weak candidate who had already lost two bids for the Senate and one for governor, Oberweis had upside-down numbers -- higher unfavorable than favorable ratings -- in some polls heading into the election, and that was probably a major contributing factor in his loss.

Had either Bush's approval ratings been higher or Republicans nominated a candidate with less baggage, this seat likely wouldn't have turned over.

The National Republican Congressional Committee was forced to throw $1.2 million, roughly 20 percent of its total bank account balance, to defend a seat that never should have been in play.

Probably the most on-target criticism of NRCC Chairman Tom Cole is that he actually wanted this job and beat two rivals for it this cycle. Reps. Phil English, R-Pa., and Pete Sessions, R-Texas, should be thanking their lucky stars they came up short in the balloting.

Republicans should be alarmed over poll numbers measuring party identification and enthusiasm of voters. The advantage Democrats enjoy over Republicans in voter ID ranges from as low as 8 points to as high as 14 points, depending upon the poll -- a lot considering the parties were dead even five years ago.

A just completed Cook Political Report/RT Strategies poll of 838 registered voters conducted Wednesday through Sunday -- with a 3.5-point error margin -- showed 37 percent identifying themselves as Democrats, 28 percent as Republicans and 31 percent as independents. When figures were adjusted for independents who said which party they leaned toward, Democrats rose to 50 percent and Republicans to 39 percent. Ten percent stayed purely independent or wouldn't say.

Voting in the 2004 presidential election showed just how important party identification can be. Democratic Sen. John Kerry of Massachusetts won the vote of 89 percent of Democrats and Democrat-leaning independents, and Bush carried 93 percent of the Republicans and GOP leaners. Even among white voters, the GOP edge was just 2 points among party members, 3 points with leaners pushed.

Then there is enthusiasm.

In a presidential election year, it's a decent bet that Republicans, no matter how demoralized, will turn out in numbers in line with past election years. When the GOP presidential race was still actively contested, Republican turnout was solid and in some cases reached record highs. The danger for the GOP is if there is an extraordinarily high Democratic turnout in the general.

It's not hard to imagine that Sen. John McCain , R-Ariz., could match the national and state-by-state vote totals Bush received in 2004, or that the Democratic nominee, either Sen. Barack Obama of Illinois or Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton of New York, might pick up a substantially higher vote count than Kerry did four years ago.

The turnout figures in Democratic primaries and enthusiasm levels in national polls certainly suggest that could be the case, and it would obviously have a detrimental effect on GOP candidates downballot.

Even if there isn't a disproportionate Democratic turnout, Republicans would need to win over virtually all of the pure independents, quite a chore considering they broke Democratic in 2006. If the turnout trends seen in the primaries continue, that wouldn't even be enough.

While it is hard for a party to gain a lot of House seats in the election following a big win, and the wave that Democrats used to regain the House and Senate in 2006 certainly qualifies as big, one has to wonder in this environment how many more they could get.

 

Currently, the Cook Political Report lists 22 Republican seats in three competitive categories: 10 are "Tossups," another 11 are "Lean Republican" (down from 12 after the Illinois 14th District loss) and the neighboring open seat in Illinois' 11th District is in the "Lean Democratic" column. Twenty-two more are in the potentially competitive category of "Likely Republican."

While a single-digit seat gain for Democrats has been expected, the potential for seat gains to creep into the teens appears to be growing, with close to half of 26 open seats in danger and about two-dozen incumbents at some degree of risk.

Considering the GOP fielded a flawed candidate in Oberweis, it is unwise to extrapolate his loss nationally and begin predicting overblown gains for Democrats. But the special election does serve as a reminder of just how ugly the environment is for Republicans these days and provides a taste of what a second bad election in a row for the GOP might look like.

 

 

 

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